Wheat Exports from Russia and Ukraine Remain Below Historical Levels

The global wheat market is facing uncertainty due to weak exports from Russia and Ukraine. According to recent data, cumulative exports since the beginning of the marketing year could total around 294 million bushels, equivalent to approximately 8 million metric tons, one of the lowest levels recorded for this time of year in more than a decade.

Russian exports in September are projected to fall by nearly 53% from the same month last year, while Ukraine's cumulative shipments would reach only about 99 million bushels-approximately 2.7 million metric tons-roughly 60% below year-ago levels. This represents a significant contraction for a region that remains critical to global wheat supplies.

Persistent logistical challenges affecting both the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov are behind this scenario. Navigation constraints, disruptions to export corridors and operational difficulties at port terminals continue to directly affect shipping capacity. These problems are compounded by high insurance costs, logistical restrictions and lower commercial confidence among traders and buyers.