Wheat Prices Could Triple Due to Global Warming

A recent study from Aarhus University in Denmark has found that drought could lead to a tripling of wheat prices due to global warming. The research, which examined the effects of drought on wheat markets worldwide, discovered that severe water scarcity can explain around 74% of annual fluctuations in global wheat prices between 2000 and 2021.

According to the study, when several major agricultural regions experience drought simultaneously or in quick succession, the consequences can be felt all the way to supermarket shelves and bakery aisles. The researchers developed a new indicator known as Severe Water Scarcity, which measures the proportion of global cropland experiencing drought during the months when crops are most sensitive to water shortages.

The study suggests that at 2 degrees of global warming, the average wheat price would be approximately $273 per tonne. However, at 3 degrees of warming, this figure rises to about $364 per tonne, roughly three times the inflation-adjusted global wheat price recorded in 2010.