Wheat Prices Soar Amid Ukraine Shipping Disruptions

The global wheat market has seen significant price surges in recent months due to disruptions at Ukrainian shipping ports and diesel shortages in Russia.

According to data, US hard red winter wheat traded below $300/tonne through April but increased to $351/tonne by the end of September, a rise of almost 20%. On an annual basis, wheat prices are up roughly 56%.

The International Grains Council has placed the 2026/27 global wheat production forecast at 820-million tonnes, which is above the long-term average but still represents a 3% drop from the previous season. Despite this, stock levels are also expected to remain high, with an estimated 278-million tonnes of stock in the 2026/27 season.

South Africa's wheat market is facing challenges due to a dry and reduced planting season, which may result in lower production figures. The country is likely to increase its wheat imports to about 2-million tonnes, up from 1.8-million tonnes last season.