Wheat Prices Surge Above £200/t Amid Black Sea Export Woes

Global wheat prices have surged, breaking above £200/t in London futures. The November 2026 contract closed at £203/t, a 1.8% increase from the previous week, according to the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB).

The AHDB notes that the next significant price level to watch is £207/t, which was reached on July 22. Analysts believe there may be resistance at this level due to fresh developments in global grain markets.

Uncertainty surrounding exports from Russia and Ukraine, two of the world's largest wheat suppliers, continues to support global prices. Russian grain exports fell 20% year-on-year in July, with steeper declines expected in August.

The disruption to Black Sea supplies has lifted wheat markets across Europe and North America. December 2026 Paris wheat futures rose 1.9%, while December 2026 Chicago wheat futures gained 4.8%. Maize markets also posted strong gains, with a 4.6% increase in December 2026 Chicago maize futures.

US Department of Agriculture (USDA) supply and demand report trimmed its forecast for the 2026 US maize yield by 0.14t/ha to 11.35t/ha, signaling tighter supplies and supporting prices. Canadian markets will be watching closely as harvesting of spring barley, wheat, and oats begins.