Wheat Production Expected to Plummet by 23 Million Tonnes Amid El Niño and Iran Conflict

Global wheat production is expected to drop by 23 million tonnes in the 2026-27 season due to various factors. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has forecasted a decline in global output, citing smaller crops in the US and Canada. However, higher output in Russia and Ukraine is expected to partly offset this decline.

The Iran conflict has affected shipments of fertiliser raw materials from the Persian Gulf, leading farmers in North America, the European Union, the UK, and Australia to switch to other crops or reduce acreage. El Niño-induced weather risks and higher input costs are also contributing to the decline in wheat production. Analysts warn that if the strong El Niño persists until March, crop production will be further disrupted.

The global wheat balance is tightening in 2026-27, with consumption expected to rise to 828 million tonnes from 822 million tonnes this season. Global trade is projected to decline to 205 million tonnes from 216 million tonnes, while ending stocks are forecast to fall to 279 million tonnes from 285 million tonnes.