Wheat Rises as Black Sea Exports Remain in Focus

Wheat prices rose on Tuesday, driven by fund and technical buying, as traders continued to monitor Black Sea exports amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. The conflict has yet to significantly boost demand for U.S. wheat, but further disruptions could change that. Traders are also keeping an eye on planting activity in Russia and Ukraine, where areas are expected to shrink compared to last year, along with weather conditions in Argentina and Australia ahead of harvest. Recent rains in the U.S. Plains have eased some drought concerns.

Soybean prices saw modest gains due to fund and technical buying, with traders assessing the impact of recent harvest delays. The USDA reported that 25% of the U.S. soybean crop has been harvested, lagging behind the five-year average of 33%. Meanwhile, 85% of the crop is dropping leaves, and 57% is rated good to excellent, down 1%. China, typically a major buyer, is out of the export market this week due to the Golden Week holiday. Export inspections were down weekly but up yearly, primarily to China and Algeria. Soybean meal futures fell, while soybean oil rose on adjusted demand expectations. Globally, attention is turning to early planting in Argentina and Brazil.

Corn prices were narrowly mixed, with the market awaiting drier conditions in parts of the Corn Belt following a wet end to September. As of Sunday, 23% of the corn crop has been harvested, below the average of 27%, with 83% mature and 54% in good to excellent condition, down 3%. Mexico purchased 126,540 tons of U.S. corn for the 2026/27 marketing year. Export inspections were below the previous week and a year ago but still sufficient to meet projections, led by Mexico and Japan. Traders are also watching planting progress in South America.