Wildfire Smoke and Black Sea Tensions Fuel Wheat Market Surge

Southern Ontario's hot and dry summer has been shrouded in wildfire smoke, causing concerns for fruit and wine producers. Temperatures have remained above normal over the past two weeks, with daily highs near 30 C. The smoke is not expected to damage row crops, but a break from it is forecasted for the second half of July as rains move into northwestern Ontario.

The dry weather in southwestern Ontario has helped boost the winter wheat harvest, with most areas receiving less than 15 mm of rainfall over the past two weeks. The Windsor area reported the largest rainfall in southern Ontario, with amounts ranging from 50 to 75 mm. Moisture levels are adequate across most of southern Ontario, but rain will be required soon to maintain row crop prospects.

The Chicago wheat market has climbed to new contract highs due to increased attacks on Ukrainian port facilities by Russia. Ukraine's retaliatory strikes have focused on Russian oil and petroleum infrastructure. The September contract price moved above US$4.80 per bushel, while the U.S. winter wheat harvest is ahead of schedule at 74% complete as of July 19.