Winter LNG Shortage Looms as Persian Gulf Exports Struggle to Recover

The Persian Gulf LNG supply is facing a prolonged winter shortage, according to Goldman Sachs commodities strategist Samantha Dart, who spoke at the Gastech Conference in Thailand on September 17. The region's exports averaged only 15% to 25% of prewar levels during July and August, and Goldman expects them to gradually recover to around two thirds of normal by January 2027.

However, LNG has proven more difficult to reroute than oil, which has already achieved prewar export levels. This has created upside risk for European natural gas prices, with Dart's clients expecting the Persian Gulf disruption to persist through winter and push TTF (The Netherlands' natural gas benchmark) towards €105/MWh.

As Europe secures flexible US cargoes, a wider JKM (Japan Korea Marker) to TTF spread could redirect supply toward Asia, forcing both regional benchmarks higher. Asia is expected to absorb most of the required demand destruction, with Indian industrial users facing significant price pressure around $30/mmBtu.

While the winter scarcity story appears dire, Goldman forecasts a longer-term LNG glut on the horizon, with TTF projected to average €19/MWh and JKM around $7.15/mmBtu between 2030 and 2035.