WMO Predicts El Nino to Persist Until February 2027, Warning of Warmer Winters

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a forecast with a 100% probability of El Nino persisting through February 2027, indicating a warmer winter for India and potential disruptions to rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide.

The current El Nino event is expected to peak towards the end of 2026, with impacts continuing well into 2027. This forecast carries significant consequences for two continents: Indian planners must prepare for floods, droughts, and heat risk in equal measure, while East African governments face a fresh round of advisory planning for the October to December short rains season.

For India, the warmer winter poses a triple threat of flood, drought, and heat. A warm winter can damage Indian wheat crops, which are typically planted during this time, and have already pushed New Delhi to restrict wheat exports in early 2023. The World Meteorological Organization warns that temperature and rainfall anomalies will continue to ripple through regional climates deep into 2027.