The World Bank has revised its gold price forecast, suggesting that much of the anticipated decline may have already occurred. The institution now expects gold to average $4,000 per ounce in 2028, a level just 1.7% below the current market price of $4,068.71 per ounce. This projection marks a downward adjustment from earlier estimates, reflecting a more moderate outlook for the precious metal.
In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, the World Bank projected that gold would average $4,600 per ounce in 2026, up 33.6% from the previous year’s average of $3,442. However, it anticipates a gradual decline to $4,250 in 2027 and $4,000 in 2028. The current spot price is already remarkably close to the 2028 forecast, indicating that the market may have already absorbed much of the expected correction.
Gold has already experienced a significant correction from its record high of $5,379 per ounce in January. The latest closing price represents a decline of approximately 24.4% from that peak. The World Bank attributes this decline to higher government bond yields and a stronger US dollar, which have reduced gold’s appeal as an investment. The report also noted that gold prices fell 5% during the July-September quarter and weakened further in October amid expectations of tighter monetary policy.
Despite the projected decline, the World Bank does not expect a dramatic collapse in gold prices. Central bank purchases and investment demand are expected to provide continued support, accounting for about half of global gold demand in the first half of 2026. The institution also highlighted potential risks, including geopolitical conflicts and interest rate expectations, which could push prices higher or lower than the forecasted levels.