World Bank's Commodity Outlook Makes Abrupt U-Turn in Six Months

The World Bank's 2026 commodity outlook has undergone a significant revision in just six months. The October 2025 forecast predicted an overall commodity-price index decline of 7% in 2026, but this was replaced by a 16% price increase in the April 2026 update.

This represents a 23 percentage-point revision from the original forecast. Energy prices were also expected to fall by 10%, only to rise by 24% in the revised forecast, marking a 34-point change.

The fertilizer market saw the largest comparable revision at 36 points, shifting from a predicted decline of 5% to an increase of 31%. The annual average price of Brent crude oil rose from $60 to $86 per barrel, a staggering 43.3% increase.