WTI Breaks Above March Ceiling as Brent Lags Behind

The price of WTI crude oil has broken above a declining resistance line that had capped every rally since March 2026, but Brent crude did not follow suit. According to Razan Hilal, StoneX Media Market Analyst, this break changes the landscape for crude oil supply risk and where the market is testing next.

Strikes on Russian oil refineries, tensions between the United States and Iran, and risks around the Strait of Hormuz have shifted the crude oil market from oversupply concerns in early 2026 to persistent tightening conditions. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is holding near levels last seen roughly 44 years ago.

Brent crude tells a different story, however, as it has stalled at the neckline of the double top that triggered the June 2026 selloff. This divergence between WTI and Brent could have significant implications for the market.