West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices started the week on a weaker note, retreating from a one-month high near $99.25-$99.30 reached on Friday. The commodity slipped below mid-$97.00s during Asian trading hours, as hopes of improved supplies emerged after US President Donald Trump waived most sanctions and tariffs on Russia. However, escalating tensions in the Middle East and conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to limit deeper losses.
Three tankers were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, with Iran’s IRGC navy asserting that the waterway remains closed without its authorization. Mohsen Rezaei, a secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned of a new retaliation plan for any renewed US-Israeli attack. Additionally, Ukraine launched over 1,000 drones at Russia, targeting an oil export terminal and a storage depot in St. Petersburg.
Clashes between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthi rebel group in Yemen continue unabated, maintaining a geopolitical risk premium that supports crude oil prices. From a technical standpoint, WTI prices remain bullish above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 63 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) marginally positive. Initial support is seen at $96.25, followed by deeper cushions at $94.37 and $92.85.
On the upside, resistance is noted at $99.29, and a sustained break above this level could extend the current bullish phase. A drop below $96.25 might signal a corrective pullback toward the mid-$90s. The broader demand zone is reinforced above the 61.8% retracement at $91.33.