Yields and Dollar Hold Key to Gold's Second-Half Trajectory

Gold and silver have been under pressure in the first half of FY27, facing renewed selling pressure due to rising global bond yields, inflation concerns, and expectations of tighter monetary policy.

The US 10-year Treasury yield recently reached its highest level since 2007 at 5.18 per cent, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver.

However, despite the correction, the structural factors supporting bullion have not disappeared, including central-bank demand, concerns over fiscal sustainability, and geopolitical uncertainty.

Gold has declined substantially from its January peak, potentially creating a healthier valuation base for the next phase of the cycle. The average 2027 gold forecast is $4,610 an ounce, despite analysts having lowered their estimates following the correction.