$100 Billion Tariff Refund May Leave Consumers Paying the Final Bill

US businesses that paid Donald Trump's tariffs are in line to receive $100 billion in refunds, following the Supreme Court's ruling on February 20. The figure includes duties and interest, covering more than half of the roughly $166 billion collected under tariffs later rejected by the court.

The repayments will be made to large importers with strong balance sheets and direct customs entries, such as Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), and Target (TGT). These companies are likely to receive much of the money, rather than smaller businesses or consumers who ultimately absorbed the cost.

Customs has built a dedicated system called CAPE to check declarations, remove eligible IEEPA duties, and send certified amounts to the Treasury. However, the repayment does not automatically go to shoppers who faced higher prices, as the company importing an item may not be the retailer or customer that ultimately absorbed the cost.

The Supreme Court ruling removed IEEPA as a route for sweeping tariffs, but it did not eliminate the government's ability to impose duties under other laws. The administration has already turned to Section 301 of the Trade Act for tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on imports from 60 economies.