$202B Treasury Settlement Could Spark Surprise Move in Bitcoin
A $202 billion US Treasury coupon settlement is set to take place on September 30. This event could potentially impact the price of Bitcoin, as it may cause upward pressure on repo borrowing and SOFR (3.88% on Sept. 24). The New York Fed says reserves remain ample with roughly $15.6B of reinvestment purchases, but whether any repo-driven stress spills into crypto and Bitcoin funding depends on derivatives signals.
The settlement includes reopened TIPS ($19B) and two-, five- and seven-year notes ($69B, $70B and $44B), totaling $202 billion in new face value. This is a significant amount, as it offsets $143.58 billion of maturities, leaving $58.42 billion net new face value.
The New York Fed's Roberto Perli said reserves appeared ample and funding markets had remained orderly. However, the market is calm for now, but warns that net new supply could lift repo borrowing rates. Whether this pressure reaches Bitcoin is uncertain.