AI Spending Slowdown May Fuel Liquidity Surge into Bitcoin, Says Arthur Hayes
Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO, thinks that a slowdown in AI spending could eventually create financial stress leading to a liquidity surge into Bitcoin. According to him, this scenario is not about sentiment or exchange flows but rather the impact of weakening demand for AI on data center builds and private-credit deals.
The estimated $5 trillion poured into AI infrastructure through 2030 may underpin over $2 trillion in extra investment-grade debt. Apollo has warned that weaker-than-expected cash-flow growth among major hyperscalers could lead to wider credit spreads and reduced capital spending.
Hayes believes that potential losses or downgrades tied to AI-related debt could ripple into institutions holding those assets, particularly insurers with exposure through leverage or affiliated reinsurance structures. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners acknowledges private-credit risks but reports no current insolvency tied to AI exposure.