Alphractal Flags Distribution Phase for Bitcoin
A financial analysis tool called Alphractal has identified Bitcoin as being in its distribution phase. This phase is characterized by a decline in price after a significant peak, often accompanied by a reduction in trading volume and a deterioration of on-chain metrics.
The model suggests that the current cycle's peak occurred between October 12-18, 2025, at around $85,440. With Bitcoin currently trading at $83,823, it appears to be tracking within the early stages of the bear phase, rather than a markup phase.
The Alphractal model projects that the next major low for Bitcoin will occur between October 6-16, 2026, with a support zone ranging from $60,000-$70,000. This projection is based on historical patterns observed in previous cycles, including the 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 cycles.
The model's accuracy relies heavily on the precision of its reference peak. If the October 2025 top holds as a valid reference point, it would mean that Bitcoin's current price is not consolidating before a new leg higher, but rather declining from a cycle peak already printed.