Analyst Says Altcoin Rally Not Yet Full Season

Analyst Dennis Liu, known on X as VirtualBacon, argues that the current altcoin rally does not yet signal the start of a full-fledged alt season. He bases this on the fact that the average altcoin has only gained about 10% more than Bitcoin since the primary cryptocurrency’s bottom. Liu points to the Total 2-to-Bitcoin ratio, which remains flat, indicating that most altcoins are still trailing behind Bitcoin’s performance.

While a few altcoins like Zcash, Venice, and Quant have seen significant gains, Zcash up over 726% in a year and Quant jumping 530% in days, these are exceptions rather than the norm. Major altcoins such as XRP, Ethereum, Solana, and BNB have barely outperformed Bitcoin. Liu emphasizes that the market is still in the early stages of what could become an alt season, stating, "We are just barely getting started."

Bitcoin itself has been trading sideways between $85,000 and $86,000 after being rejected at $87,000. The largest altcoins have shown little movement in the past 24 hours, with Ethereum holding above $2,700 and XRP at $1.50. Meanwhile, smaller altcoins like RAIN dropped over 7%, while FIL and ZRO gained 8% and 10%, respectively.

Liu advises traders not to wait for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high before considering altcoins, as this strategy failed in 2024 when Bitcoin broke its previous record while many altcoins continued to underperform. Instead, he suggests trading individual altcoin rallies. In a separate analysis, Liu identified $83,000 as Bitcoin’s daily pivot, with potential moves toward $78,000 if it breaks below or past $87,000 if it holds above.