Analyst Says Isolated Altcoin Gains Not Enough for Full Season

Despite recent rallies in tokens like Zcash and Quant, analyst Dennis Liu (VirtualBacon on X) argues that a true altcoin season has not yet begun. He notes that while a few coins have seen significant gains, these are isolated examples rather than a broad market trend.

Liu’s assessment is based on the relative performance of altcoins compared to Bitcoin. The Total 2-to-Bitcoin ratio, which measures the market value of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin against BTC, remains flat. On average, altcoins have only gained about 10% more than Bitcoin since its recent bottom, far below the outperformance typically seen during past alt seasons.

Zcash has surged over 726% in the past year, while Quant saw a dramatic 530% jump from $59 to $370 before settling near $255. However, other major altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and BNB are barely ahead of Bitcoin. Liu emphasizes that these gains do not indicate a full-blown altcoin season, stating, "We are just barely getting started."

Liu also cautions traders against waiting for Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high before considering altcoins, as this strategy failed in 2024. He advises trading individual altcoin rallies instead of waiting for a broader signal. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been trading sideways between $85,000 and $86,000, with a market cap of $1.72 trillion and a 58% share of the total crypto market.