Armstrong Sees Bitcoin Bottom, But History Warns of Uncertainty

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently stated that he believes Bitcoin has hit its bottom price in this cycle. This is not his first time making this argument, but it's still a bold claim to make in front of a live audience.

Armstrong's statement comes after a volatile summer for Bitcoin, which peaked near $124,800 in October 2025 and slid to about $60,100 by June 29, 2026. That's a 51.8% drop, which is considered a technical bear market for old-school stocks.

However, according to history, Bitcoin's last three cycle crashes were deeper: 79.9%, 81.9%, and 76.6%. By this standard, the current decline is relatively mild.

Another factor that could be contributing to the current price of Bitcoin is the growing institutional investor base. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products held about 1.29 million BTC, worth roughly $109.3 billion, as of October 2. This represents about 6.1% of Bitcoin's maximum supply of 21 million coins.

Armstrong may be correct that the bottom is near, but timing is still uncertain. Each of the three earlier troughs arrived 924 to 999 days after a halving, and Bitcoin is now 895 days past the April 2024 halving. If historical patterns hold, the next window should open around Halloween and run into mid-January 2027.