Armstrong's Bitcoin Bottom Call Faces Timing Concerns

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes that Bitcoin (BTC) has hit a bottom, and history might be on his side. In a recent Bloomberg video, Armstrong stated, 'I personally think we've seen the bottom of the Bitcoin price in this cycle.'

Armstrong has made this argument before, but his confidence in Bitcoin's current price remains unwavering. According to Armstrong, about half of Coinbase's revenues come from trading volume, which could be seen as a biased perspective.

Despite this potential bias, the data suggests that Armstrong's prediction might not be far-fetched. Bitcoin's price peaked at around $124,800 in October 2025 and dropped to about $60,100 in June 2026, a decline of 51.8%. However, this decline is relatively mild compared to Bitcoin's previous cycle crashes, which saw drops of 79.9%, 81.9%, and 76.6%.

Another key factor to consider is the change in the buyer base. According to Bitbo data, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products held about 1.29 million BTC, worth roughly $109.3 billion, as of October 2. This represents about 6.1% of Bitcoin's maximum supply of 21 million coins, a significant increase from previous troughs.

However, timing remains a concern. Bitcoin's previous cycle crashes occurred around 924 to 999 days after a halving event. The next halving is expected to occur around Halloween and run into mid-January 2027, which could be a key factor in determining the bottom of the market.