Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin to Hit 126000 by Year End

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, predicts Bitcoin will hit $126,000 by the end of 2026, calling it a "foregone conclusion." At the time of his prediction, Bitcoin was trading at $86,050, meaning it would need a 46% gain in less than three months to reach his target. Hayes bases his forecast on the idea that government and central bank money printing will drive up the price of scarce assets like Bitcoin, whose supply is capped at 21 million coins.

Bitcoin's recent performance suggests a steep climb ahead. Over the past month leading up to October 5, it gained about 8%, and if this pace continues, it would only reach around $108,000 by December, falling $18,000 short of Hayes's target. The challenge is further highlighted by the slowing interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw $6.3 billion in inflows in the third quarter but only around $1 billion net for all of 2026.

While Hayes's year-end prediction may not materialize, his long-term thesis could still hold. If Bitcoin reaches $126,080 in 2027, his broader outlook on Bitcoin's potential would remain valid. Other financial institutions have revised their Bitcoin forecasts, with Standard Chartered lowering its prediction from $150,000 to $100,000 and Bernstein reducing its estimate from $150,000 to $125,000. The key takeaway is that even if the $126,000 target isn't met by December 31, minor monthly gains could still push Bitcoin to reclaim its record in the future.