Balchunas Predicts Bitcoin ETFs Will Triple Gold Holdings, Sending Price Soaring
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicts that Bitcoin ETFs will eventually hold three times as much money as gold ETFs. At current levels, this is a significant call, given that global gold ETFs held around $615 billion at the end of August.
According to Balchunas, there are three forces driving his forecast: younger investors, who currently make up 26% of Americans aged 18-29 and 28% of those aged 30-49 who have used crypto; institutional money, which still has room to grow, accounting for about 21% of US Bitcoin ETF assets in Q1; and the powerful distribution machine of US funds, which have attracted around $54.6 billion in net inflows since launch.
If Balchunas' prediction is correct, it would put Bitcoin ETF assets near $1.85 trillion, roughly 19 times their current levels. To illustrate this, simple scenario math shows that if the US funds doubled to hold 2.52 million BTC and ETF assets reached $1.85 trillion, Bitcoin's price would need to trade near $732,000.
However, Balchunas emphasizes that there is no clean formula for determining ETF asset growth, and prices can fluctuate based on various factors. He also notes that gold ETF assets can continue to grow, and Bitcoin funds could accumulate far more coins.