Bearish Shift: Author Sees Heightened Downside Risk in Bitcoin
The author of this article has shifted their stance on Bitcoin and Ethereum from hedged long to bearish, citing repeated failed attempts to force a squeeze, crisis-level backwardation, and dealers flipping short gamma.
They believe that the current market conditions indicate heightened near-term downside risk, with $77,000 as a key breakdown level for Bitcoin. The author also points out that the SPX faces elevated circuit-breaker risk due to negative correlation calendar spreads and an unhedged 250,000 put wall at 6,000.
The author remains bearish on oil and US bonds but sees tactical upside in the CORN ETF and potential benefits for FXY due to a Japanese carry trade unwind. They advise closing spot longs and running outright shorts until technical and structural signals improve.