Benjamin Cowen Predicts Treasury Yield Peak Could Ease Bitcoin Pressure

Analyst Benjamin Cowen anticipates that the 10-year Treasury yield may soon reach its peak before mid-November, following a high of 5.342% on October 1. This development could reduce pressure on Bitcoin (BTC) and other risk assets. Cowen's prediction aligns with historical patterns observed in midterm election years, such as 2018 and 2022, where yields peaked between early October and mid-November before declining.

Cowen notes that the Federal Reserve's potential hesitation to raise interest rates, due to soft inflation and a weak labor market, could influence yield movements. The September jobs report showed only 29,000 new jobs, supporting his view. However, he cautions that a bad inflation report could still trigger a bond selloff, potentially affecting the Fed's decision.

Cowen expects the Fed to hold off on rate hikes, which could lead to falling yields starting in mid-November. While this may provide some relief for risk assets like Bitcoin, he warns that long-term rates may still climb over the next decade or two, maintaining pressure on non-yielding assets.

Although Cowen did not directly mention Bitcoin, he suggested that the rate path would impact risk assets. Recently, Bitcoin has shown sensitivity to yield movements, rallying briefly after the weak jobs report, which eased fears of further Fed hikes.