Bernstein Cuts Circle Price Target Amid Revenue-Sharing Concerns

Bernstein Research has revised its price target for Circle Internet Group, the issuer of the USDC dollar stablecoin, from $190 to $140. This represents a decrease of over 26% and implies about 118% upside from the current share price of around $64.

The analyst firm maintained its Outperform rating on Circle, stating that the market has overstated the threat posed by OpenUSD, a consortium launched in June with more than 140 payments, financial, and fintech companies. Bernstein pointed out that Circle has been signing separate memorandums of understanding with OpenUSD participants, and Visa executives have stated that their company will maintain a multi-coin, multi-chain strategy.

However, the revenue-sharing agreement between Circle and Hyperliquid is expected to weigh on profitability, particularly in the third quarter. According to Bernstein, this agreement will result in Hyperliquid receiving about 90% of the reserve income generated from Circle deposits on Hyperliquid, approximately $190 million out of $210 million annually.

The analyst firm has reduced its year-end forecast for Circle supply by around 37%, to $83 billion, and lowered its 2028 forecast by roughly 40%, to $170 billion. Despite this revision, Bernstein maintains a positive long-term growth outlook for the company, projecting that total stablecoin supply will reach $4 trillion by 2035, with Circle accounting for about 30% of the global stablecoin market.