Bernstein Predicts Ten-Trillion-Dollar Prediction Market Boom by 2035
Financial research firm Bernstein has significantly increased its forecast for the growth of prediction markets, now expecting them to reach $10 trillion in trading volume by 2035. This is a major upgrade from their previous projection of $1 trillion by 2030 and represents a tenfold increase.
The majority of this growth will come from non-sports related contracts, such as those tied to cryptocurrencies, stocks, and commodities. Bernstein estimates that these financial assets currently represent a pool of $700 trillion in potential bets, which is expected to grow to $900 trillion by 2035.
Even if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of this pool, it would translate to $4.7 trillion per year in volume on financial contracts alone. Bernstein also notes that regulatory clarity for U.S. sports prediction markets is unlikely before 2027 or 2028, which could impact the industry's growth.