Bernstein Sees Bitcoin Reaching New Highs by Late 2026

Wall Street research firm Bernstein expects Bitcoin to recover from its recent downturn and reach new highs by late 2026. According to a report published Wednesday, the analysts predict that Bitcoin will reclaim its $125,000 peak from 2025 under both their base and bull cases.

The company attributes this forecast to institutional investors and corporate Bitcoin buyers playing a larger role in the market, which has provided greater downside support during the current cycle. This has resulted in a smaller drawdown compared to previous cycles, with Bernstein noting that Bitcoin fell about 50% from its October 2025 peak before rebounding by 28% over the past 10 days.

Under their base case, Bernstein expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by mid-2027 and $300,000 in 2029. Their bull case puts the price at $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029. The company maintains its longer-term target of about $1 million by 2033 under both scenarios.

Bernstein's forecast is based on Bitcoin's historical four-year cycles, which are linked to the halving event that reduces new Bitcoin issuance every four years. The analysts estimate Bitcoin's potential price during these cycles by comparing it with the marginal cost of producing Bitcoin, or the estimated cost for the least efficient miners to produce new coins.