Bill Aims to Fine Candidates for Trading on Own Election Markets
US Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) introduced the “No Betting on Your Own Race Act” on October 5, 2026, aiming to close a loophole in ethics rules that has become more apparent as political prediction markets grow in popularity. The bill seeks to ban federal candidates and their immediate family members from trading on prediction markets tied to their own elections, imposing a civil penalty of $10,000 per violation or three times the net financial gain from the trade, whichever is larger.
The legislation was prompted by a case involving Davis’s Republican opponent, Laurie Buckhout, who settled with prediction market platform Kalshi in August 2026 after trading contracts linked to her own candidacy. Buckhout’s settlement cost her approximately $2,600 and included a three-year suspension from the platform. The case highlighted the need for stronger regulations, as current rules are voluntary and enforced by individual platforms rather than federal law.
An earlier Senate resolution addressed similar concerns but only covered sitting senators and their staff. Davis’s bill expands the prohibition to all federal candidates and their families, filling a regulatory gap for challengers who are not yet subject to the ethics frameworks governing sitting members of Congress. The Buckhout situation underscored the risks of this thin regulatory environment.
The bill faces an uphill battle for passage, as Congress’s schedule between now and the November 2026 elections leaves little room for new legislation. Additionally, the measure lacks bipartisan momentum, which typically accelerates legislative progress. For prediction market platforms, the bill largely formalizes rules they have already adopted voluntarily, such as Kalshi’s existing ban on candidates self-trading.