BIS Study Reveals Sixfold Gap in Estimated Bitcoin Onchain Transfer Values

Researchers at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) have found that estimates of Bitcoin onchain transfer values can vary greatly depending on how transactions are measured. The study, which analyzed 100 billion blockchain records across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tron, reveals a sixfold gap in estimated values.

The discrepancy stems from Bitcoin's transaction structure, where change outputs and other transfers back to the sender can be counted as additional outputs, even if they don't represent funds being transferred. This can lead to inflated estimates of onchain transfer values.

The researchers also found that similar measurement challenges extend across the broader crypto ecosystem, including Ethereum and stablecoins. For example, on Ethereum, smart contracts present a unique challenge due to their proliferation and varied use cases.