BIS Study Warns Crypto Metrics May Be Far Less Precise Than They Seem
A new study by researchers at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) has warned that widely used metrics in cryptocurrency markets may be far less precise than they seem.
The study, which analyzed 100 billion blockchain records covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, and TRON, found that measures such as transaction volumes, market capitalization, and total value locked (TVL) can be heavily distorted by blockchain architecture, user behavior, and the proliferation of smart contracts.
The researchers estimated that more than 1.8 million BTC had not moved for over 15 years and used this as a proxy for potentially lost coins. They also found that conventional market capitalization can reach four times realized capitalization during periods of strong price increases.
Ethereum presents a different challenge due to its programmability, with the researchers identifying 67.5 million deployed and active contracts. However, the sheer number of contracts does not translate directly into economic activity, and widespread token-name duplication can inflate estimates of the number of economically meaningful tokens.