Bitcoin Abandons 4-Year Cycle for Wall Street Rhythm

Bitcoin's price movements may be shifting away from its traditional four-year cycle, according to analyst Willy Woo. Instead of adhering to this schedule, Bitcoin could be influenced by a six-to-eight year rhythm tied more closely to traditional finance's short-term debt cycle.

This change does not make halvings irrelevant, but rather means their influence is shrinking relative to the scale of capital now moving through exchange-traded products and corporate treasuries. The next halving in 2028 would cut annual new issuance to about 82,125 BTC a year, equivalent to roughly 0.41% of today's supply base.

Institutional capital is starting to rival Bitcoin's internal clock, with public companies now holding more than 1.2 million BTC and exchange-traded products controlling over 1.5 million coins. This stock is already more than 16 times the amount of new Bitcoin miners currently produce in a year.

Woo's argument is that this changing balance could make credit conditions, global liquidity, and portfolio flows increasingly important in determining major market turns. While some research has stopped short of declaring the old framework dead, Woo's thesis remains a developing framework rather than a confirmed replacement.