Bitcoin Accumulation Phase Looms as Capitulation Signals Persist

VanEck, an asset manager, believes that Bitcoin is nearing an accumulation phase. This comes after a prolonged market decline and eight out of twelve capitulation indicators tracked by VanEck are still triggering as of August 12.

The company identified September through November as a potential window for a turning point based on historical Bitcoin cycles. The cryptocurrency's drawdown from its October 2025 peak is now in its tenth month, with all twelve monitored indicators entering capitulation territory at some stage over the past three months.

However, VanEck's backtests found that returns did not beat the Bitcoin baseline over the subsequent three- or six-month periods. Bitcoin outperformed the baseline only at the one-year horizon.