Bitcoin Analyst Admits Rate-Hike Thesis Was Based on 'Data That Never Existed'

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has acknowledged that his rate-hike thesis on Bitcoin (BTC) was incorrect. He initially believed that rising energy prices would lead to higher yields, prompting the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in September. This, he thought, would strengthen the US dollar and subsequently drag Bitcoin lower.

However, this prediction did not materialize as expected. Despite a similar dollar double-bottom formation that had previously corresponded with a local top for Bitcoin, BTC instead followed the dollar higher. Cowen noted that 'something clearly changed.'

Cowen reviewed Bitcoin's performance after previous rate hikes in December 2015 and March 2022. He found that in neither case did Bitcoin immediately drop. In fact, the price held up well for a month or two before falling.

Cowen now concedes that his thesis was flawed, as 'none of the data suggests that a rate hike has ever been immediately bearish for Bitcoin.'