Bitcoin and S&P 500 Show Historical Gains After US Midterm Elections

CryptoQuant’s latest analysis reveals a historical trend: since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen in every one-year period following US midterm elections, averaging a 15.4% gain. Bitcoin shows a similar pattern, with price surges of 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3% in the 12 months after the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterms, respectively. However, the data also highlights short-term volatility, as Bitcoin dropped 45.5% in the first month after the 2018 elections.

Despite these trends, CryptoQuant cautions that with only three historical samples for Bitcoin, there’s insufficient evidence to confirm a direct link between midterm elections and price increases. Future movements will likely depend on factors like interest rates, regulatory developments, and capital inflows.

From September 28 to October 2, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a cumulative net inflow of $241.1 million. Analysts suggest that the end of the election season could reduce political uncertainty, but Bitcoin’s rally sustainability hinges on shifts in US Treasury yields, ETF inflows, and cryptocurrency regulations.