Bitcoin Beats S&P 500 Over Four-Year Cycles, Data Shows

Bitcoin has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 index over four-year cycles, according to data analyzed by Willy Woo. The analyst compared the returns of Bitcoin with those of the stock market, and found that even when investors entered the market at local peaks, they received better results after four years than if they had invested in American stocks.

The average annual growth rate of BTC over four years is 42%, while for the S&P 500 this figure is about 19%. Woo used Glassnode data to create a chart of the annual returns of Bitcoin and the S&P 500, assuming the asset was held for exactly four years. The results show that over the period from 2017 to fall 2026, the BTC line never dropped below the level of the American stock index.

The difference between the assets was not constant, with periods of extreme returns followed by significant drops. In 2017-2018 and during the 2021 bull market peak, the four-year annual return of Bitcoin rose to 150-170%. However, in 2025 it almost approached the results of the S&P 500, but full parity did not occur.

Woo also compared Bitcoin's current result with the returns of Renaissance Technologies, a hedge fund often considered one of the most successful in history. The fund delivered 39% annual returns to investors, which is lower than Bitcoin's current 42%. Woo's key takeaway is that even investors who entered Bitcoin at local peaks received better results after four years than if they had invested in American stocks.