Bitcoin Blazes Past Stock Market Pace, Nears $80,000 Target

The past week has seen Bitcoin (BTC) gain an astonishing 20% in just five days, outpacing the stock market's average annual return by a staggering 140 times. This meteoric rise has brought BTC to within 0.6% of its record high at $80,000.

Since 1928, the S&P 500 has compounded at an average rate of 10.02% per year. When spread over five days, this translates to a gain of just 0.137%. In contrast, Bitcoin's 20% increase in the same period is equivalent to 140 times the stock market's pace.

The sudden surge can be attributed to several factors, including the US Treasury's announcement on August 19 that it would double its long-end bond buybacks from $2 billion per operation to $4 billion. This move was seen as a backstop by bond desks, leading to a reduction in long yields and an increase in short positions being unwound.

However, not everyone is convinced that the rally will continue. Jamie Coutts of Helios Analytics analyzed 14 comparable moves and found that Bitcoin sat higher 71% of the time 30 and 90 days later. The median gain was near 10%, but the extremes ran wide, with one instance resulting in a 118.7% gain over 90 days.

Coutts notes that there is a 'wall of overhead supply' at the $80,000 range, which Bitcoin needs to work through before reaching its target price. On-chain data, however, suggests that spot and futures demand are positive for the first time since October 2025, providing a bullish outlook.