Bitcoin Breaks Historic Pattern in Shallowest Bear Market Low
Bitcoin's current bear market has broken a historic pattern by avoiding deep price declines seen in previous cycles. Unlike the 2018-2019 and 2022-2023 bear markets, Bitcoin never closed below its realized price this cycle, indicating less market-wide stress. The June low remained above the realized price, suggesting this could be the shallowest bear-market low of the three cycles compared by Glassnode.
Despite the June low, the Percent Supply in Profit fell to levels similar to the November 2022 low, with a large share of coins underwater. However, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) never turned negative, unlike in previous bear markets. This suggests that while many coins were underwater, the overall market stress was contained.
Glassnode identifies key supply clusters, with the largest long-term-holder supply at $84,000, $85,000. The mean MVRV price is set at $96,700, where the average holder’s profit returns to its long-term norm. The True Market Mean at $77,000 serves as the main support reference. Institutional demand and ETF inflows also play a crucial role in the recovery narrative.
The next major test for Bitcoin's price is at $95,000, $97,000, where options positioning and the mean MVRV price converge. Positive gamma around the $95,000 strikes suggests potential price acceleration, while negative gamma between spot and $92,000 could dampen moves. Demand indicators have improved, with US spot ETFs recording about $1.3 billion in inflows and spot volume more than doubling from its August trough.