Bitcoin Breaks Through $85,000 Resistance, Eyes $100,000

Bitcoin has broken through a key resistance level of $85,000, setting its sights on the $100,000 mark. According to analysts, the cryptocurrency's on-chain accumulation patterns, institutional valuation anchors, and derivatives positioning all point to a range of $90,000 to $100,000.

However, this area is also a sensitive zone where historically high valuations and leverage liquidation risks intertwine. Whether buyers can effectively absorb returning supply and digest increasingly expensive leveraged positions will determine the ultimate height of this rebound.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that the average cost basis for holders who purchased Bitcoin 18 months to 2 years ago is approximately $88,350, while the average cost basis for those who purchased 6 to 12 months ago is around $89,200. As the price approaches these cost lines, buyers will need to effectively absorb returning supply to extend the rebound above $90,000.

Bitwise has also provided a clear reference coordinate at the institutional valuation level, with a short-term holder cost basis of approximately $73,000, a true market average cost basis of approximately $77,000, and an estimated average cost basis of approximately $83,000 for spot ETF investors.

The improvement in the macro environment has provided an additional catalyst for Bitcoin's rise, with weak U.S. employment data reducing market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike. However, a more severe test still exists within the cryptocurrency market itself, with Bitwise considering $95,000 a zone that has been touched on fewer than 2% of days in the company's data sample.