Bitcoin Bull Run Begins With 3x to 5x Gain Expected

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has declared that the Bitcoin bull run has begun, though he predicts a more modest gain compared to previous cycles. Ju expects a 3x to 5x increase from the lows, rather than the 10x surge seen in past bull markets. He attributes this to the influence of institutional ETF and custody flows, which he believes will reduce volatility and set the institutional cost basis in the low-to-mid $80,000 range.

On-chain metrics support Ju's outlook, showing signs of fresh capital entering the market, reduced selling by large holders, and nearly $700 billion in realized market cap. Coinbase custodial inflows and miner cost support also indicate institutional accumulation, suggesting that trillions could flow into the market in the next cycle. Ju highlights the relevance of monitoring DeFi and decentralized exchange activity as key indicators of this trend.

Ju argues that the bear market ended this summer, marking the start of a new bullish phase. He points to the PNL Index and ETFs as the primary liquidity channels driving the cycle. The institutional cost basis in the $80,000 range is seen as a critical bull-bear line, reflecting the strategic positioning of major players. Ju also notes how institutions have changed on-chain analysis, emphasizing the importance of custodial and accumulation wallets in tracking market movements.