Bitcoin Crossover Triggers Bullish On-Chain Signal Amid Record ETF Inflows
Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis has surpassed that of 'active' long-term holders, a rare on-chain signal that has only occurred five times in history. According to analyst Darkfost, this crossover is a bullish indicator, suggesting the market momentum has shifted.
The previous four occurrences were in 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2023. However, with only five observations, it's still too early to consider this signal as a reliable predictor of future Bitcoin returns.
This crossover is particularly significant given the current market conditions. The signal arrives alongside renewed spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, which reached approximately $999 million on September 21, and just before one of the quarter's largest derivatives events: roughly $16 billion in Bitcoin options expire on Deribit on September 25.
Darkfost emphasizes that this indicator is not a guarantee, but rather an interesting data point. The question now is whether the fifth occurrence follows the previous four or breaks the pattern.