Bitcoin Cycle Bottom May Be In at $58K: Analyst

Bitcoin (BTC) price may have already hit its cycle bottom at $58K, according to Checkonchain's James Check. He believes that two capitulation events in February and June/July indicate the market has absorbed much of its selling pressure.

The Bitcoin four-year cycle has led some traders to expect another low in October 2026, but Check argues that this is a flawed assumption. 'What's the difference between $58K and $59K or $60K? Nothing,' he said.

Check noted that about $300 billion in cost basis was concentrated between $58K and $70K, while around 4 million BTC moved from an unrealized loss into profit during the subsequent recovery. He also pointed out that long-term holders now control roughly 80% of Bitcoin wealth and are more likely to wait for substantially higher prices than sell after a short-term rebound.

Grayscale researcher Zach Pandl reached a similar conclusion, stating 'I'm willing to stick my neck out and make a guess that prices bottomed back at $58K at the end of June.'