Bitcoin Cycle Bottom May Be In at $58K, Says Checkonchain Analyst

Bitcoin's recent price action has some analysts wondering if it may have already established its cycle bottom. According to James Check, founder and lead analyst at Checkonchain, Bitcoin's capitulation events in February and June were likely the last of the selling pressure.

The first event occurred when Bitcoin fell towards $60,000 in February, a 'price-pain capitulation' for investors who bought near the top. The second event took place around $58,000 in June and July, following months of sideways price action that left holders questioning whether Bitcoin would recover.

Check notes that approximately $300 billion in Bitcoin cost basis was concentrated between $58,000 and $70,000, while about 4 million BTC moved from an unrealized loss into profit during the subsequent recovery. He also points out that long-term holders now control roughly 80% of Bitcoin wealth and are more likely to wait for substantially higher prices than sell after a short-term rebound.

This challenges expectations of an October low, as some traders had anticipated based on historical four-year cycle patterns. Check advises traders not to anchor themselves to these calendar dates, but instead examine cost basis, unrealized and realized losses, holder profitability, and whether experienced investors are accumulating or distributing their coins.