Bitcoin Cycle Diverges From Previous Bear Markets

The current Bitcoin cycle is exhibiting a divergence from previous bear markets, according to an analysis by Glassnode. The LTH-MVRV indicator, which compares long-term holders' market value with their cost basis, has not fallen below the breakeven threshold of 1 as it did in 2015-2016, 2018-2019, and 2022.

The indicator has started to rise again, indicating that the total asset value of the long-term holder group remains above its cost basis. This pattern differs from what was observed in previous bear markets, where the group's total asset value fell below its cost basis.

Glassnode's analysis highlights how the current cycle has differed so far, but it does not guarantee that a lower bottom will not form from here.