Bitcoin Defies Bear Market Norms as Realized Price Holds Strong
According to Glassnode's latest on-chain report dated September 23, 2026, the current Bitcoin bear market has broken a long-standing pattern. Every previous Bitcoin bear market since at least 2017 had one thing in common: the price eventually dropped below the realized price, which represents the average cost basis of every coin on the network.
This time, however, the June 2026 low marked the cycle's deepest drawdown, and it still held above that critical threshold. The realized price is Bitcoin's collective break-even point, calculated by valuing each coin at the price it last moved on-chain and averaging the whole supply.
Glassnode's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric (NUPL) reinforces this point. NUPL stayed positive throughout the entire cycle, which has never happened in a Bitcoin bear market before. This means that while individual holders certainly took losses, the network as a whole never tipped into aggregate loss territory.
The percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit did dip to levels seen in November 2022, but losses were broad but shallow. This helps explain why selling pressure never reached the capitulation levels of prior cycles.