Bitcoin Defies Expectations After Fed Rate Hike

The US Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in over three years, sparking concerns about its impact on risk-on assets like BTC. However, instead of a sharp decline, Bitcoin rebounded quickly and even turned losses into gains. Nansen Senior Research Analyst Nicolai Sondergaard explained that the regulatory setback from the CLARITY Act produced more significant volatility for BTC than the Fed's rate hike.

Nexo Dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev noted that markets had assigned a 90%+ probability to the interest rate hike ahead of the meeting, leaving little room for surprise. According to SoSoValue data, spot BTC ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $450 million on September 15 and $296 million a day later.

Kalchev argued that Treasury yields are now the major test for Bitcoin, as the 10-year yield recently jumped past 5%. He believes inflation, employment, and Treasury yields are more important than the Fed meeting itself. If inflation cools and yields stabilize, pressure on BTC will likely ease.