Bitcoin Defies Key Level Amid Downside Risk

Bitcoin's price has been trading in a downward pattern over the past two weeks, with lower highs forming a descending channel. The current price of $63,660 is below the peak set ten days ago at $66,900, and the upper boundary of this channel has rejected every rally attempt since then.

According to Coindoo's owner Filip Vantchev, Bitcoin is retesting its 0.2 Fibonacci retracement and the 50-day simple moving average, both of which sit within roughly $200 of each other at around $63,600 and $63,400 respectively. This area has significant support confluence.

However, two independent models suggest that this may not be the end of Bitcoin's downward trend. CryptoQuant's analysis of normalized price paths from each halving cycle indicates that 2024 has not yet reached the window in which previous cycles found their floors, suggesting that downside risk remains. Glassnode's chart tracking drawdowns from all-time highs across four cycles shows that this current bear market is still relatively mild and may take longer to reach its lows.

Bitcoin currently sits on two overlapping supports after a rejection at channel resistance, with the 50-day simple moving average and the upper boundary of the descending channel both overhead. The 100-day and 200-day averages sit above at $69,050 and $71,460 respectively, but are still sloping down.