Bitcoin Enters Final Stage of Bear Market, Key Indicators Point to Turning Point

The Bitcoin market is showing signs of entering its final stage of a bear market, according to on-chain data. The cost-basis crossover, a key indicator, has occurred, where long-term holders' average purchase price exceeds that of short-term holders. This typically marks the beginning of the last stage of a bear market.

The supply squeeze is also evident, with 84% of Bitcoin held by long-term holders, the highest percentage since 2016. This represents a significant shift in ownership, with short-term traders holding only 16% of available liquidity. The ratio of long-term to short-term supply is at an all-time high, indicating that seasoned investors are bolstering their holdings.

The market's 'bottom formation' is being confirmed by the capitulation countdown, which links loss-stricken supply with the Realized Cap Variance (RCV) model. The Supply in Loss has exceeded the 50% threshold, and the RCV Z-score is at -2.35, placing it in the bottom 6% of its historical range.