Bitcoin Enters Its Best Quarter Since 2024 With $147k Price Target Looming
Bitcoin has just closed its strongest quarter since 2024 after a 43% surge in value, leaving traditional markets like US stocks and gold behind. The largest digital asset's third-quarter performance was driven by institutional demand returning to the market, as well as sellers who had previously been underwater being absorbed at progressively higher prices.
According to Bitfinex and CoinGlass data, Bitcoin rebounded 43.88% in Q3 2026 after losing value in the first two quarters of the year. This puts it on course for its second-best third-quarter since 2013 and its third-strongest quarterly advance since US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) began trading in January 2024.
Traditional markets barely kept pace, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining about 5% and the S&P 500 roughly 4% over the same period. Gold even underperformed, rising less than 2%. Ethereum was a notable exception, outperforming Bitcoin as the crypto rebound broadened beyond the market leader.
The Treasury's initiative to improve liquidity in longer-dated government debt did not prevent yields from rising, and long-dated borrowing costs reached multi-decade highs over the quarter. However, US spot Bitcoin ETFs provided a fresh source of capital as financial conditions tightened elsewhere.
Analysts at Nexo said that Bitcoin enters the fourth quarter with stronger spot demand and an improving market structure, but the outlook still depends on ETF buying persisting, overhead supply being absorbed, and inflation remaining contained enough to prevent further Federal Reserve tightening. They estimate that the ratio of ETF purchases to miner issuance needs to recover toward five times issuance, equivalent to roughly $190 million of ETF demand a day, to absorb the overhead supply more quickly.
Bitcoin's best season is approaching, with the fourth quarter historically producing the largest returns for the asset since 2013. According to BloFin Research, matching its 77.07% historical average from current levels would put Bitcoin near $147,000, while its median fourth-quarter return of 47.73% would imply roughly $123,000.